Interfirm Job Mobility of Two Cohorts of Young German Men 1979 - 1990: An analysis of the (West-)German Employment Statistic Register Sample concerning multivariate failure times and unobserved heterogeneity

The OECD (1993) has documented that the majority of workers in industrialised countries can look forward to finding a stable employment relationship. However new entrants into the labor force experience high turnover. Promoting institutions which support longer tenures and worker participation (or ''voice`` in the firm) utilize strategies to encourage enterprise and employee efforts in skill formation and training. The results of the OECD (1993) study show that attachments between employee and employer are more likely to endure for Japanese, French and German workers. Furthermore Germany has the highest share of young new recruits who received any formal training from their employer. In Germany, 71.5 % of young new recruits were trained at any job within 7 years after leaving school, whereas in the U.S. only 10.2 % of young new recruits were similarly trained (cf. OECD 1993, 137). It is sometimes assumed that employment protection policies have been exogenously imposed and thus probably impair efficiency. However, research on the micro-economics of labor markets has shown that employers may be interested in long-term employment relationships (cf. Levine 1991). Here, the job training model focusing on the importance of human capital investment, specifically the job shopping and matching model stressing the process of information gathering through employment experience should be mentioned. In such models employment protection legislation has not only desirable distributional effects but also help to ensure efficient outcomes. Therefore, it is important to assess the relevance of micro- economic theories empirically. This paper provides an empirical analysis of job durations in Western Germany using information from two cohorts of new entrants to the labor force documented in the (West-)German employment statistic register sample (cf. Bender and Hilzendegen 1996). The appropriate empirical technique to study job length is event history or survival analysis. In labor market research, survival analysis has primarily focused on explaining the length of unemployment spells. Application of this technique to employment is less common 1 , because huge longitudinal data sets are needed. Apart from testing hypotheses about the effect of personal characteristics and labor demand variables (e.g. firm size and industry affiliation), we will assess the influence of heterogeneity of the members of the two cohorts on their duration profile. The applied model and estimation method allow for unobserved heterogeneity and correlation between the clustered failure times of one employee as well as for right-censored spells. Our analysis is not restricted to the beginning of the working life of the employees. The individual retirement decision is affected by employment protection and early retirement regulations which differ widely between the firms. The respective data are missing in the employment statistic register, so that the retirement decision cannot be modelled explicitly

A Combined GEE/Buckley-James Method for Estimating an Accelerated Failure Time Model of Multivariate Failure Times

The present paper deals with the estimation of a frailty model of multivariate failure times. The failure times are modeled by an Accelerated Failure Time Model including observed covariates and an unobservable frailty component. The frailty is assumed random and differs across elementary units, but is constant across the spells of a unit or a group. We develop an estimator (of the regression parameters) that combines the GEE approach (Liang and Zeger, 1986) with the Buckley-James estimator for censored data. This estimator is robust against violations of the correlation structure and the distributional assumptions. Some simulation studies are conducted in order to study the empirical performance of the estimator. Finally, the methods are applied to data of repeated appearances of malign ventricular arrhythmias at patients with implanted defibrillator

Analyse zeitveraenderlicher Kovariablen und rekurrenter Ereignisse am Beispiel einer Studie zur prophylaktischen Behandlung von Oesophagusvarizen

To assess the effect of prophylactic sclerotherapy on variceal hemorrhage and survival of patients with liver cirrhosis and esophageal varices, a randomized study had been carried out. We analysed the data from different points of view. The time-dependent Cox model and the linear counting process of Aalen are applied allowing for the time-dependent covariate ``variceal bleeding`` -- that switches up to three times -- in a multivariate analysis of the remaining life time. A model for the times to and between the recurrent events of bleeding including unobserved heterogeneity is estimated by a distribution-free and by a parametric method where the latter also admits time-dependent covariates such as repeated measurements of laboratory data. We find that high age, high Child-Pugh score and especially the first occurence of variceal bleeding have a statistically significant negative effect on survival whereas patients with fundic varices and/or alcoholic cirrhosis have a significant higher risk of bleeding. In both analyses, inclusion of time-dependent covariates does not change the estimation substantially. In particular, prophylactic sclerotherapy is not shown to reduce the risk of bleeding nor dying significantly

Parametric versus Nonparametric Treatment of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multivariate Failure Times

Two contrary methods for the estimation of a frailty model of multivariate failure times are presented. The assumed Accelerated Failure Time Model includes censored data, observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. The parametric estimator maximizes the marginal likelihood whereas the method which does not require distributional assumptions combines the GEE approach (Liang and Zeger, 1986) with the Buckley-James (1979) estimator for censored data. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to compare the methods under various conditions with regard to bias and efficiency. The ML estimator is found to be rather robust against some misspecifications and both methods seem to be interesting alternatives in uncertain circumstances which lack exact solutions. The methods are applied to data of recurrent purchase acts of yogurt brands

Parametric versus Nonparametric Treatment of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multivariate Failure Times

Two contrary methods for the estimation of a frailty model of multivariate failure times are presented. The assumed Accelerated Failure Time Model includes censored data, observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. The parametric estimator maximizes the marginal likelihood whereas the method which does not require distributional assumptions combines the GEE approach (Liang and Zeger, 1986) with the Buckley-James (1979) estimator for censored data. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to compare the methods under various conditions with regard to bias and efficiency. The ML estimator is found to be rather robust against some misspecifications and both methods seem to be interesting alternatives in uncertain circumstances which lack exact solutions. The methods are applied to data of recurrent purchase acts of yogurt brands

Seniority and Job Stability: A Quantile Regression Approach Using Matched Employer-Employee Data

Job mobility and employment durations can be explained by different theoretical approaches, such as job matching or human capital theory or dual labor market approaches. These models may, however, apply to different degrees at different durations in the employment spell. Standard empirical techniques, such as hazard rate analysis, cannot deal with this problem. In this paper, we apply censored quantile regression techniques to estimate employment durations of male workers in Germany. Our results give some support to the job matching model: individuals with a high risk of being bad matches exhibit higher exit rates initially, but the effect fades out over time. By contrast, the influence of human capital variables such as education and further training decreases with employment duration, which is inconsistent with the notion of increasing match-specific rents due to human capital accumulation. The results also suggest that the effects of certain labor market institutions, such as works councils, differ markedly between short-term and long-term employment, supporting the view that institutions give rise to dual labor markets

Parametric versus nonparametric treatment of unobserved heterogeneity in multivariate failure times

Two contrary methods for the estimation of a frailty model of multivariate failure times are presented. The assumed Accelerated Failure Time Model includes censored data, observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. The parametric estimator maximizes the marginal likelihood whereas the method which does not require distributional assumptions combines the GEE approach (Liang and Zeger, 1986) with the Buckley-James (1979) estimator for censored data. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to compare the methods under various conditions with regard to bias and efficiency. The ML estimator is found to be rather robust against some misspecifications and both methods seem to be interesting alternatives in uncertain circumstances which lack exact solutions. The methods are applied to data of recurrent purchase acts of yogurt brands. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 6137(80) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Analyse zeitveraenderlicher Kovariablen und rekurrenter Ereignisse am Beispiel einer Studie zur prophylaktischen Behandlung von Oesophagusvarizen

To assess the effect of prophylactic sclerotherapy on variceal hemorrhage and survival of patients with liver cirrhosis and esophageal varices, a randomized study had been carried out. We analysed the data from different points of view. The time-dependent Cox model and the linear counting process of Aalen are applied allowing for the time-dependent covariate 'variceal bleeding' - that switches up to three times - in a multivariate analysis of the remaining life time. A model for the times to and between the recurrent events of bleeding including unobserved heterogeneity is estimated by a distribution-free and by a parametric method where the latter also admits time-dependent covariates such as repeated measurements of laboratory data. We find that high age, high Child-Pugh score and especially the first occurence of variceal bleeding have a statistically significant negative effect on survival whereas patients with fundic varices and/or alcoholic cirrhosis have a significant higher risk of bleeding. In both analyses, inclusion of time-dependent covariates does not change the estimation substantially. In particular, prophylactic sclerotherapy is not shown to reduce the risk of bleeding nor dying significantly. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 6137(81) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Interfirm job mobility of two cohorts of young german men 1979 - 1990: an analysis of the (West-)German Employment Statistic Register Sample concerning multivariate failure times and unobserved heterogeneity

SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 6137(94) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman